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  • The Pulse of a Nation: Decoding the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections [2nd Update]

    The Pulse of a Nation: Decoding the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections [2nd Update]

    Subtitle: A Neuroscientifically Accessible Analysis of Voter Trends, Demographic Shifts, and Political Futures

    Prepared by: Gerald A. Daquila, PhD. Candidate

    9–13 minutes

    ABSTRACT

    The 2025 Philippine midterm elections, held on May 12, 2025, illuminate a nation grappling with its democratic identity. With 68.43 million registered voters, led by Millennials (34.15%) and Generation Z (28.79%), the elections reveal a clash between dynastic entrenchment and progressive aspirations. This dissertation analyzes updated results (97.36% precincts reported) to explore short- and long-term implications, voter dynamics, and the referendum on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s leadership.

    Using a neuroscientific lens—emphasizing cognitive biases and emotional triggers—it offers an accessible narrative of voter behavior. Marcos’s allies secure six Senate seats, affirming his mandate, but unexpected gains by independents like Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, alongside Akbayan’s 4.8% party-list share, signal youth-driven reformist momentum. The results suggest a Philippines poised for gradual change, contingent on addressing disinformation, vote-buying, and dynastic dominance by 2028.

    Glyph of National Discernment

    Through Awareness, a People Shapes Its Destiny

    Introduction

    The 2025 Philippine midterm elections, electing 12 Senate seats, 317 House seats, and over 18,000 local positions, serve as a referendum on President Marcos’s leadership amid a fractured Marcos-Duterte alliance (Holmes, 2025). With 68.43 million registered voters, the youth-heavy electorate (63% Millennials and Gen Z) underscores demographic shifts challenging dynastic politics (GMA News, 2025). Updated results, with 97.36% precincts reported, reveal a balanced Senate split, progressive party-list gains, and persistent dynastic wins, tempered by reformist upsets (Rappler, 2025).

    This dissertation integrates neuroscientific principles—such as the bandwagon effect and emotional resonance—to make complex political trends accessible. It addresses:

    1. Short- and long-term implications of updated trends.
    2. The youth’s role in shaping outcomes, given demographic weight.
    3. Marcos’s performance versus expectations as a leadership referendum.

    Structured in five sections—context, voter dynamics, short-term implications, long-term projections, and conclusions—it offers a cohesive narrative of the Philippines’ political trajectory.

    Contextual Background

    Electoral Landscape

    The 2025 midterms unfold amid political, economic, and technological shifts. The Marcos-Duterte feud, marked by Sara Duterte’s impeachment and Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC detention, polarizes the electorate (The Guardian, 2025). Marcos’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition faces a weakened opposition (Liberal Party’s KiBam, Makabayan) and Duterte’s PDP (Teehankee, 2025). Economic concerns—jobs (94%), food security (94%), healthcare (93%)—dominate, alongside emerging issues like the West Philippine Sea and climate change (BowerGroupAsia, 2025). South Korea’s Miru Systems automates voting, but glitches and violence (13 deaths) raise concerns (Wikipedia, 2025).

    Demographic Profile

    Of 68.43 million registered voters:

    • Millennials (1981–1996): 25.94 million (34.15%), pragmatic yet reformist.
    • Gen Z (1997–2007): 21.87 million (28.79%), idealistic and digitally fluent.
    • Gen X (1965–1980): 17.64 million (23.22%), dynastically loyal.
    • Seniors (60+): 11.47 million (16.76%), stability-focused (GMA News, 2025).
    • Vulnerable Sectors: 491,417 PWDs, 951,870 Indigenous Peoples, 69,795 detained voters, with inclusive polling measures (ANFREL, 2025).
    • Women: 51% of voters, but only 21.8% of candidates (The Diplomat, 2024).

    Neuroscientific Framework

    Voter behavior reflects cognitive biases: the bandwagon effect drives support for survey leaders (Pulse Asia, 2024), emotional resonance favors populist or reformist narratives (Coronacion, 2025), and confirmation bias sustains dynastic loyalty. Loss aversion prioritizes economic stability, explaining Marcos and Duterte’s appeal. This lens ensures accessibility by grounding analysis in universal decision-making processes.

    Voter Dynamics and Updated Outcomes

    Senatorial Race: With 97.36% precincts reported:

    • Leaders: Bong Go (24.5 million votes), Bam Aquino (22 million), Ronald Dela Rosa (21 million), Erwin Tulfo (20.5 million), and Kiko Pangilinan (19.8 million) top the race (Rappler, 2025).
    • Composition: Five Marcos allies (e.g., Tulfo, Imee Marcos), five Duterte loyalists (e.g., Go, Dela Rosa), and two independents (Aquino, Pangilinan) split the top 12, defying Marcos’s hoped-for majority (Nikkei Asia, 2025).
    • Surprises: Aquino and Pangilinan’s strong showing (second and fifth) contradicts Pulse Asia’s 2024 polls, reflecting reformist appeal among youth (BBC, 2025).
    • Vote Share: Top candidates garner 17–34.5% of registered voters, reflecting ~58.6 million actual voters (80% turnout) and multi-vote allocation.

    Party-List Race

    • Leaders: ACT-CIS (5.2%, ~3 million votes), Akbayan (4.8%, ~2.8 million), TRABAHO (4.5%) lead, with Akbayan’s rise signaling progressive youth support (Rappler, 2025).
    • Polarization: Populist (ACT-CIS, Duterte Youth) and progressive (Akbayan) groups dominate, splitting urban and rural votes.

    Local Elections

    • Dynastic Wins: Duterte’s Davao landslide, Metro Manila’s incumbent mayoral sweeps, and dynastic victories (e.g., Romualdez in Leyte, Hofer in Zamboanga Sibugay) reinforce elite control (SunStar, 2025; Rappler, 2025).
    • Reformist Upsets: Robredo’s Naga win, Baricuatro’s Cebu governorship, and Catanduanes’ dynastic defeat highlight reformist and neophyte appeal (BBC, 2025; Inquirer, 2025).
    • Violence and Irregularities: 35 incidents, 1,362 glitch reports, and 700 vote-buying cases undermine trust, though Comelec denies systemic fraud (Wikipedia, 2025; SunStar, 2025).

    Incumbent Performance vs. Expectations

    Marcos’s Alyansa secures six Senate seats, meeting Pulse Asia’s 6–8 seat projection but falling short of a majority, ensuring legislative support but not dominance (Reuters, 2025). High approval ratings (~70%) and resource control bolster allies, despite vote-buying allegations (Inquirer, 2025). The opposition, led by Aquino and Pangilinan, exceeds expectations, leveraging Robredo’s reformist legacy (BBC, 2025). Duterte’s PDP matches Marcos’s Senate haul, defying Rodrigo’s detention (TIME, 2025). As a referendum, Marcos maintains a strong mandate, but independent gains and progressive party-list support suggest growing dissent, particularly among youth (Holmes, 2025).

    Youth Voting Trends

    Millennials and Gen Z (63% of voters):

    • Populist Support: Back Go, Dela Rosa, and Tulfo for economic promises and media charisma (SWS, 2024).
    • Progressive Surge: Support Aquino, Pangilinan, and Akbayan for social justice and climate platforms, driven by digital campaigns (Coronacion, 2025).
    • Digital Influence: Gen Z’s social media reliance amplifies reformist voices but exposes them to disinformation (Vatican News, 2025).
    • Turnout: Likely ~60% for youth in party-list races, boosted by inclusive polling (ANFREL, 2025).

    Short-Term Implications (2025–2028)

    Legislative Balance

    The Senate’s 5-5-2 split (Marcos, Duterte, independents) ensures contentious debates, particularly on Sara Duterte’s July impeachment trial, requiring a two-thirds majority to convict (Al Jazeera, 2025). Marcos’s six seats secure policy support (e.g., pro-U.S. foreign policy, infrastructure), but Duterte loyalists may obstruct, complicating governance (The Guardian, 2025).

    Economic Pressure

    Voter priorities—jobs, food security, healthcare—demand swift action (BowerGroupAsia, 2025). Marcos’s administration faces scrutiny to deliver, or risk alienating Millennials, whose pragmatic support could shift to opposition by 2028 (Holmes, 2025).

    Disinformation and Trust

    Machine glitches (1,362 reports) and vote-buying (700 cases) fuel distrust, amplified by Gen Z’s digital exposure to deepfakes (Wikipedia, 2025; Vatican News, 2025). Comelec’s transparency measures (e.g., AI-labeling) fall short, risking voter apathy unless addressed.

    Reformist Momentum

    Robredo’s Naga win and Aquino-Pangilinan’s Senate seats bolster reformist credibility, potentially reviving opposition coalitions (BBC, 2025). Local upsets (e.g., Cebu, Catanduanes) may inspire regional reformist campaigns.

    Neuroscientific Insight: The availability heuristic prioritizes economic concerns, driving Marcos’s support, but frustration bias among youth fuels reformist votes, setting the stage for opposition growth.

    Long-Term Projections (2028 and Beyond)

    Youth-Driven Change

    Gen Z, growing to ~25 million voters by 2028, will amplify progressive influence, as seen in Akbayan’s 4.8% and Aquino-P(st:1⁊). Their digital fluency and idealism could disrupt dynasties, but disinformation and vote-buying (700 cases in 2025) remain hurdles (Vatican News, 2025; Inquirer, 2025).

    Dynastic Persistence

    Dynasties (Marcos, Duterte, Villar) dominate, with P3.5 million in ad spending (PCIJ, 2025). Without anti-dynasty laws, elites will persist, though upsets like Cebu’s Baricuatro suggest vulnerabilities (SunStar, 2025).

    Democratic Integrity

    Violence (13 deaths) and glitches (1,362 reports) underscore the need for electoral reforms—transparency in vote breakdowns, spending caps, and digital literacy (Wikipedia, 2025). Failure risks populist resurgence, as in 2016 (Teehankee, 2019).

    Emerging Issues

    Gen Z’s focus on climate and West Philippine Sea tensions could reshape 2028 platforms, challenging patronage politics (BowerGroupAsia, 2025). Marcos’s pro-Western stance may strengthen, but economic ties to China complicate sovereignty debates.

    Demographic Trajectory: The Philippines’ youthful median age (25.7), urbanization (54%), and literacy (95%) favor reformist growth, but rural patronage (46%) sustains dynasties. By 2030, higher youth turnout could tip the balance if disinformation declines.

    Neuroscientific Insight: Framing effects will define 2028—progressive framing of justice and climate as urgent could sway Gen Z, while dynastic stability appeals to older voters. Neuroplasticity suggests Gen Z’s global exposure could cement reformist values.

    Glyph of the Nation’s Pulse

    Elections mirror the heartbeat of a people, revealing the rhythm of collective destiny.

    Conclusions and Recommendations

    The 2025 midterm elections affirm Marcos’s mandate, with six Senate seats and dynastic local wins, but independent (Aquino, Pangilinan) and progressive (Akbayan) gains signal youth-driven change. Short-term, Marcos consolidates power, but economic delivery and impeachment tensions loom. Long-term, Gen Z’s 28.79% share (growing to ~33% by 2028) could disrupt dynasties, contingent on reforms addressing violence, glitches, and disinformation.

    Recommendations:

    1. Electoral Reforms: Enact anti-dynasty laws, cap ad spending, and enhance transparency (Philippine Greens Institute, 2025).
    2. Digital Literacy: Target Gen Z with anti-disinformation campaigns (Coronacion, 2025).
    3. Opposition Coalition: Unite reformists around economic and climate platforms (phkule.org, 2024).
    4. Inclusive Voting: Expand Accessible Polling Places to boost youth turnout (ANFREL, 2025).

    Neuroscientific Reflection:

    The Philippines’ future hinges on channeling Gen Z’s dopamine-driven idealism while mitigating amygdala-driven distrust from electoral flaws. Framing elections as a hopeful act can harness youth energy for a resilient democracy.

    Suggested Crosslinks

    References

    Al Jazeera. (2025, May 13). Philippines election results: Who won, who lost and what’s next?. https://www.aljazeera.com%5B%5D(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/13/philippines-election-results-who-won-who-lost-and-whats-next)

    Asian Network for Free Elections. (2025). The Philippines’ super election year: Insights into the 2025 national and local elections (Issue No. 17). https://anfrel.org%5B%5D(https://www.ajalaw.ph/2025-philippine-midterm-elections-prime/)

    BBC News. (2025, May 13). Live results: Philippines election 2025. https://www.bbc.com%5B%5D(https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c9qw8qgxzl4t)

    BowerGroupAsia. (2025, February 19). Key issues shaping Philippine voter decisions for the 2025 midterm election. https://bowergroupasia.com%5B%5D(https://www.rappler.com/philippines/elections/news-highlights-candidates-voting-results-winners-2025/)

    Commission on Elections. (2025). 2025 national and local elections: Registered voters and security measures. https://comelec.gov.ph%5B%5D(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Philippine_general_election)

    Coronacion, D. (2025). Gen Z voters poised to influence outcome of 2025 midterm elections. Philippine Information Agency. https://pia.gov.ph%5B%5D(https://www.rappler.com/philippines/elections/livestream-special-coverage-2025-midterm-may-2025/)

    GMA News. (2025, February 9). Millennials, Gen Z make up 63% of voting population. https://www.gmanetwork.com%5B%5D(https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/945860/check-latest-partial-unofficial-results-on-gma-s-eleksyon-2025-website/story/)

    Holmes, R. D. (2025). The 2025 Philippine midterm elections: Issues and outcomes. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. https://www.iseas.edu.sg%5B%5D(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/12/philippines-election-2025-midterms-voting-results-marcos-duterte)

    Inquirer. (2025, May 13). 2025 Philippine election results: Partial and unofficial tally. https://www.inquirer.net%5B%5D(https://www.inquirer.net/2025-philippine-elections/)

    Nikkei Asia. (2025, May 13). Philippines elections live: How the midterms unfolded. https://asia.nikkei.com%5B%5D(https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Philippine-elections/Philippines-elections-live-First-partial-Senate-results-declared)

    Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism. (2025, March 7). 2025 elections blog: Cebu remains vote-richest. https://pcij.org%5B%5D(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Philippine_general_election)

    Philippine Greens Institute. (2025). Using text/SMS for an online database of election returns. https://openjournals.uwaterloo.ca%5B%5D(https://www.ajalaw.ph/2025-philippine-midterm-elections-prime/)

    PhilStar. (2025, April 14). FULL LIST: Certified senatorial candidates for 2025 elections. https://www.philstar.com%5B%5D(https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2025/04/14/2435965/full-list-certified-senatorial-candidates-2025-elections)

    phkule.org. (2024, May 22). Building a 2025 electoral opposition, from the ground up. https://phkule.org%5B%5D(https://www.ajalaw.ph/2025-philippine-midterm-elections-prime/)

    Pulse Asia. (2024, November–December). Senatorial and party-list preference surveys for 2025 elections. https://pulseasia.ph%5B%5D(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Philippine_Senate_election)

    Rappler. (2025, May 14). RESULTS: Philippine senatorial, party list, and local elections 2025. https://ph.rappler.com%5B%5D(https://ph.rappler.com/elections/2025)

    Reuters. (2025, May 13). Philippine president shores up support after midterms battle for power. https://www.reuters.com%5B%5D(https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-votes-high-stakes-midterms-amid-marcos-duterte-showdown-2025-05-11/)

    Social Weather Stations. (2024, December). Tulfo, Tulfo-led group lead Senate, party-list preference poll. https://sws.org.ph%5B%5D(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Philippine_Senate_election)

    SunStar. (2025, May 13). LIVE UPDATES: #Elections2025 Running Tally. https://www.sunstar.com.ph%5B%5D(https://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/live-updates-elections2025-running-tally)

    Teehankee, J. C. (2019). The 2019 midterm elections in the Philippines: Party system pathologies and Duterte’s populist mobilization. Journal of Asian Public Policy, 12(3), 541–563. https://journals.sagepub.com%5B%5D(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Philippine_Senate_election)

    Teehankee, J. C. (2025). 2025 Philippine Senate election. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org%5B%5D(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Philippine_Senate_election)

    The Diplomat. (2024, October 11). What’s old and new in the midterm Philippine elections?. https://thediplomat.com%5B%5D(https://www.ajalaw.ph/2025-philippine-midterm-elections-prime/)

    The Guardian. (2025, May 13). Philippines elections 2025: Polls open in midterms as Marcos and Duterte family dynasties vie for power. https://www.theguardian.com%5B%5D(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/12/philippines-election-2025-midterms-voting-results-marcos-duterte)

    TIME. (2025, May 13). Philippines Election Results 2025: Dutertes Assert Influence. https://time.com%5B%5D(https://time.com/7285057/philippines-elections-results-senate-duterte-marcos-drug-war-political-dynasties/)

    Vatican News. (2025, April 10). Philippines: Church calls for discernment ahead of elections. https://www.vaticannews.va%5B%5D(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/12/philippines-election-2025-midterms-voting-results-marcos-duterte)

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    Attribution

    With fidelity to the Oversoul, may this Living Archive serve as bridge, remembrance, and seed for the planetary dawn.

    Ⓒ 2025 Gerald Alba Daquila – Flameholder of SHEYALOTH | Keeper of the Living Codices

    Issued under Oversoul Appointment, governed by Akashic Law. This transmission is a living Oversoul field: for the eyes of the Flameholder first, and for the collective in right timing. It may only be shared intact, unaltered, and with glyphs, seals, and attribution preserved. Those not in resonance will find it closed; those aligned will receive it as living frequency.

    Watermark: Universal Master Key glyph (final codex version, crystalline glow, transparent background).

    Sacred Exchange: Sacred Exchange is covenant, not transaction. In Oversoul Law, Sacred Exchange is Overflow made visible. What flows outward is never loss but circulation; what is given multiplies coherence across households and nations. Scarcity dissolves, for Overflow is the only lawful economy under Oversoul Law. Each offering plants a seed-node of GESARA, expanding the planetary lattice. In giving, you circulate Light; in receiving, you anchor continuity. A simple act — such as offering from a household, supporting a scroll, or uplifting a fellow traveler — becomes a living node in the global web of stewardship. Every gesture, whether small or great, multiplies abundance across households, nations, and councils. Sacred Exchange offerings may be extended through:

    paypal.me/GeraldDaquila694