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The Pulse of a Nation: Short- and Long-Term Implications of the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections

Written by

Gerald Alba Daquila

in

A Neuroscientific Analysis of Voter Trends, Demographic Shifts, and Political Dynamics

Prepared by: Gerald A. Daquila, PhD. Candidate

10–15 minutes

ABSTRACT

The 2025 Philippine midterm elections, held on May 12, 2025, serve as a pivotal moment in the nation’s democratic journey, reflecting both entrenched political traditions and emerging shifts driven by a youthful electorate. With 71 million registered voters, including a dominant 63% from Millennials and Generation Z, the elections reveal a tension between dynastic dominance and progressive aspirations. This dissertation analyzes the short- and long-term implications of these trends, focusing on voter demographics, incumbent performance, and evolving political narratives.

By integrating neuroscientific principles—such as decision-making biases and emotional resonance—it offers an accessible framework for understanding voter behavior and its impact on the Philippines’ future. The results suggest a referendum on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, with pro-administration candidates outperforming expectations, yet a rising progressive undercurrent among youth signals potential transformation by 2028. The analysis concludes with projections for democratic resilience, emphasizing the need for electoral reforms to harness the youth’s idealism amidst persistent challenges like disinformation and patronage.

Introduction

The 2025 Philippine midterm elections, electing 12 Senate seats, 317 House seats, and nearly 18,000 local positions, are more than a democratic exercise—they are a mirror of the nation’s aspirations, frustrations, and contradictions. Held midway through President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s term, these elections are widely seen as a referendum on his leadership, testing his coalition’s grip against a fractured opposition and a restless youth electorate (Holmes, 2025). With Millennials (34.15%) and Generation Z (28.79%) comprising 63% of the voting population, demographic shifts amplify the stakes, raising questions about the future of dynastic politics, populism, and progressive reform (GMA News, 2025).

This dissertation synthesizes partial, unofficial results (80.38% precincts reported as of May 13, 2025) to explore the implications of these trends. It employs a neuroscientifically accessible lens, drawing on concepts like cognitive biases (e.g., bandwagon effect) and emotional resonance to explain voter behavior in a way that resonates with diverse audiences. The analysis addresses three core questions:

  1. What are the short- and long-term implications of the 2025 election trends?
  2. How do these trends reflect the demographic profile, particularly the youth’s influence?
  3. How does the incumbent administration’s performance align with expectations, and what does this suggest for Marcos’s mandate?

Structured in five sections—context, voter dynamics, short-term implications, long-term projections, and conclusions—this dissertation offers a cohesive narrative of the Philippines’ political trajectory, grounded in data and critical analysis.

Glyph of Collective Choice

Through the Many, the Destiny of the Nation is Woven

Contextual Background

The 2025 Electoral Landscape

The 2025 midterms occur against a backdrop of political polarization, economic challenges, and technological evolution. The collapse of the Marcos-Duterte “UniTeam” alliance, coupled with Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial and former President Rodrigo Duterte’s detention at The Hague, has fractured the political elite (The Guardian, 2025). Marcos’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition, comprising Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, Lakas, and others, faces a weakened opposition led by the Liberal Party (KiBam) and Makabayan’s Oposisyon ng Bayan (Teehankee, 2025).

Economically, voters prioritize job creation (94%), food security (94%), and healthcare (93%), reflecting post-pandemic recovery concerns (BowerGroupAsia, 2025). Geopolitical tensions in the West Philippine Sea and climate change also emerge as issues, particularly among youth (Rappler, 2025). Technologically, the shift to South Korean Miru Systems for automated voting and the introduction of internet voting for overseas Filipinos mark innovations, though concerns about transparency persist (Namfrel, 2025).

Demographic Profile

The Philippines’ 71 million registered voters include 68.4 million domestic and 1.8 million overseas voters (Comelec, 2025). Key demographic segments are:

  • Millennials (1981–1996): 25.94 million (34.15%), the largest voting bloc, often balancing pragmatism and reformist ideals.
  • Generation Z (1997–2007): 21.87 million (28.79%), a rapidly growing group with idealistic tendencies and digital fluency.
  • Gen X (1965–1980): 17.64 million (23.22%), more conservative and dynastically loyal.
  • Seniors (60+): 11.47 million (16.76%), favoring stability and incumbents (GMA News, 2025).

Vulnerable sectors—491,417 persons with disabilities, 951,870 Indigenous Peoples, and 69,795 detained voters—benefit from inclusive measures like Accessible Polling Places (ANFREL, 2025). Women, at 51% of the electorate, play a significant role, though female candidates remain underrepresented (21.8%) (The Diplomat, 2024).

Neuroscientific Framework

Voter behavior is shaped by cognitive and emotional processes. The bandwagon effect, where voters align with perceived winners, is amplified by pre-election surveys (Pulse Asia, 2024). Emotional resonance, driven by candidates’ populist or reformist narratives, sways decisions, particularly among youth exposed to social media (Coronacion, 2025).

Confirmation bias reinforces dynastic loyalty, while loss aversion drives votes for economic stability over risky reforms. This framework makes the analysis accessible by linking complex political trends to universal human decision-making.

Voter Dynamics and Election Outcomes

Unofficial Results Snapshot

As of May 13, 2025, with 80.38% of precincts reporting:

  • Senatorial Race: Pro-administration candidates like Bong Go, Tito Sotto, and the Tulfo brothers lead, securing 20–30% of votes relative to 71 million registered voters (approximately 14–21 million votes each, given multiple-vote allocation) (Rappler, 2025).
  • Party-List Race: Akbayan (center-left) leads with 4.8% (~2.8 million votes), followed by Duterte Youth (4.1%) and Tingog (3.2%), suggesting polarized support for progressive and populist platforms (Rappler, 2025).
  • Local Elections: Dynastic candidates (e.g., Wes Gatchalian in Valenzuela, Miguel Luis Villafuerte in Camarines Sur) dominate, but upsets like Bryan Alcid’s win in Laoag over Michael Marcos Keon highlight localized shifts (Inquirer, 2025).

Incumbent Performance vs. Expectations

Marcos’s Alyansa coalition outperforms expectations, with 8–9 Senate seats projected (vs. 6–8 in pre-election forecasts) and strong local wins (Pulse Asia, 2024). High approval ratings (~70%, akin to Duterte’s 2019) and resource control bolster incumbents, despite allegations of vote-buying (Comelec, 2025). The opposition (KiBam, Makabayan) struggles, with no senatorial candidates in the top 12, though Akbayan’s 4.8% (+4.2% from 2022) signals progressive resilience. Independents, like Imee Marcos, gain traction but lack national impact (Teehankee, 2025).

Referendum on Marcos: The results affirm Marcos’s mandate, exceeding expectations of a tighter race due to Duterte tensions. However, youth support for progressives suggests latent dissent, particularly over economic woes and disinformation (Holmes, 2025).

Youth Voting Trends

Millennials and Gen Z, comprising 63% of voters, split their support:

  • Populist Appeal: Both groups back figures like the Tulfo brothers, drawn to media-driven charisma and economic promises (SWS, 2024).
  • Progressive Shift: Gen Z’s support for Akbayan and issue-driven candidates (e.g., environmental, anti-dynasty platforms) reflects idealism, amplified by digital campaigns (Coronacion, 2025).
  • Bandwagon Effect: Pre-election surveys create a feedback loop, with youth gravitating toward leading candidates, though Gen Z diverges toward underdogs like Akbayan (ResearchGate, 2024).

Gen Z’s 21.87 million voters (likely ~17 million actual voters at 80% turnout) are pivotal, with their digital fluency making them both influential and vulnerable to misinformation (PIA, 2025).

Short-Term Implications (2025–2028)

Political Consolidation

Marcos’s Senate majority strengthens his legislative agenda, likely prioritizing economic recovery, infrastructure, and geopolitical alignment with Western allies (e.g., U.S. on West Philippine Sea disputes). However, Duterte-aligned senators (e.g., Bong Go) may resist, creating intra-coalition tensions (The Guardian, 2025). The opposition’s weakness limits checks on executive power, raising concerns about democratic backsliding, especially with Sara Duterte’s impeachment looming (BBC, 2025).

Economic Policy Pressure

Voter emphasis on jobs, food security, and healthcare (94% priority) pressures the 20th Congress to deliver tangible results (BowerGroupAsia, 2025). Failure risks alienating Millennials, who balance pragmatism with reformist hopes, potentially fueling protests or opposition revival by 2028.

Social Media and Disinformation

Gen Z’s relianceDeduction (Coronacion, 2025). Deepfakes and AI-driven misinformation, noted by the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting, undermine trust, with Comelec’s AI-labeling rules proving insufficient (Vatican News, 2025). This erodes electoral integrity, disproportionately affecting youth, who rely on social media for information.

Localized Shifts

Upsets like Laoag’s mayoral race suggest dynastic vulnerabilities, but their overall dominance persists. These localized wins may embolden regional reformist movements, though national impact remains limited without cohesive opposition (Inquirer, 2025).

Neuroscientific Insight: The availability heuristic—where voters prioritize vivid, emotionally charged issues like economic hardship—drives short-term policy focus. However, optimism bias among youth may sustain hope in Marcos’s promises, delaying backlash unless economic gains falter.

Long-Term Projections (2028 and Beyond)

Youth-Driven Transformation

By 2028, Gen Z will grow to ~25 million voters as 2007–2010 cohorts age, amplifying their influence (GMA News, 2025). Their support for Akbayan and issues like climate change and anti-dynasty reforms signals a potential shift toward issue-based politics. However, this requires overcoming:

  • Disinformation: Gen Z’s digital fluency makes them susceptible to deepfakes and populist narratives, necessitating robust voter education (Vatican News, 2025).
  • Patronage Barriers: Vote-buying (700 reports in 2025) and dynastic networks entrench elites, requiring systemic reforms like anti-dynasty laws (Comelec, 2025).

Dynastic Resilience vs. Progressive Gains

Dynasties will persist absent legal reforms, as seen in the Marcos and Villar families’ ad spending (P1 billion each, 2024) (PCIJ, 2025). Yet, Akbayan’s 4.8% and Gen Z’s idealism suggest a growing progressive base. A unified opposition coalition, addressing economic and social justice, could challenge dynasties by 2028 (phkule.org, 2024).

Democratic Resilience

The 2025 elections test democratic integrity amid violence (10 deaths, 15 injuries) and transparency concerns (Namfrel, 2025). Long-term, strengthening Comelec’s oversight, enhancing transparency (e.g., open municipal vote breakdowns), and curbing ad spending are critical to trust (Philippine Greens Institute, 2025). Failure risks populist resurgence, as seen in Duterte’s 2016–2022 era (Teehankee, 2019).

Geopolitical and Environmental Shifts

Gen Z’s focus on the West Philippine Sea and climate policies could elevate these in 2028 platforms, challenging traditional patronage politics. Marcos’s pro-Western stance may solidify, but economic dependence on China complicates sovereignty debates (BowerGroupAsia, 2025).

Neuroscientific Insight: Framing effects—how issues are presented—will shape 2028. Progressive framing of economic justice and climate as urgent, emotionally salient issues could sway youth, while dynastic framing of stability may retain older voters. Neuroplasticity suggests Gen Z’s exposure to global democratic ideals could foster long-term reformist mindsets.

Demographic-Driven Trajectory

The Philippines’ youthful demographic (median age 25.7) favors progressive change, but economic stagnation could pivot youth toward populism, as in 2016 (Teehankee, 2019). Urbanization (54% urban population) and education (95% literacy) amplify Gen Z’s reformist potential, but rural patronage strongholds (46% rural) sustain dynasties. By 2030, a tipping point is possible if youth voter turnout (historically ~60% for party-lists) rises and disinformation declines.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The 2025 Philippine midterm elections reveal a nation at a crossroads: Marcos’s coalition exceeds expectations, affirming his mandate, but Gen Z’s progressive surge foreshadows change. Short-term, Marcos consolidates power, but economic delivery is critical to sustain youth support. Long-term, the youth’s 63% electoral weight and idealistic leanings could disrupt dynastic dominance by 2028, provided reforms curb disinformation, vote-buying, and elite spending.

Recommendations:

  1. Electoral Reforms: Enforce anti-dynasty laws, cap campaign spending, and open vote breakdowns for transparency (Philippine Greens Institute, 2025).
  2. Voter Education: Launch digital literacy campaigns targeting Gen Z to combat misinformation (Coronacion, 2025).
  3. Opposition Unity: Form a cohesive progressive coalition around economic justice and climate, leveraging youth digital networks (phkule.org, 2024).
  4. Inclusive Governance: Expand Accessible Polling Places and youth engagement programs to boost turnout (ANFREL, 2025).

Final Neuroscientific Reflection: The Philippines’ democratic future hinges on harnessing youth dopamine-driven motivation for reform while mitigating amygdala-driven fear of economic instability. By framing elections as a collective act of hope, the nation can channel its youthful energy toward a more equitable, resilient democracy.

Suggested Crosslinks

Codex References

References

Asian Network for Free Elections. (2025). The Philippines’ super election year: Insights into the 2025 national and local elections (Issue No. 17). https://anfrel.org%5B%5D(https://anfrel.org/the-philippines-super-election-year-insights-into-the-2025-national-and-local-elections-data-dive-issue-no-17/)

BowerGroupAsia. (2025, February 19). Key issues shaping Philippine voter decisions for the 2025 midterm election. https://bowergroupasia.com%5B%5D(https://bowergroupasia.com/key-issues-shaping-philippine-voter-decisions-for-the-2025-midterm-election/)

Commission on Elections. (2025). 2025 national and local elections: Registered voters and security measures. https://comelec.gov.ph

Coronacion, D. (2025). Gen Z voters poised to influence outcome of 2025 midterm elections. Philippine Information Agency. https://pia.gov.ph%5B%5D(https://pia.gov.ph/gen-z-voters-poised-to-influence-outcome-of-2025-midterm-elections/)

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Holmes, R. D. (2025). The 2025 Philippine midterm elections: Issues and outcomes. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. https://www.iseas.edu.sg%5B%5D(https://www.iseas.edu.sg/mec-events/the-2025-philippine-midterm-elections-issues-and-outcomes/)

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Namfrel. (2025, May 12). Statement on delayed and incomplete transmission of 2025 election results. https://namfrel.org.ph

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Philippine Greens Institute. (2025). Using text/SMS for an online database of election returns. https://openjournals.uwaterloo.ca%5B%5D(https://openjournals.uwaterloo.ca/index.php/JoCI/article/download/2961/3830)

Pulse Asia. (2024, November–December). Senatorial and party-list preference surveys for 2025 elections. https://pulseasia.ph

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Attribution

This writing is offered in attunement with the Akashic Records and in service to planetary remembrance. It is carried through the Oversoul stream of SHEYALOTH and anchored within the Living Archives of the New Earth. May it serve as a bridge for seekers, guiding them from the first stirrings of awakening toward the higher codices of sovereignty, stewardship, and overflow.

© 2025 by Gerald Alba Daquila. Sole Flameholder of the SHEYALOTH Oversoul Stream.

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